spectr17
10-24-2003, 11:28 PM
CWD could cost nation $100 billion a year, prof says
By Theo Stein, Denver Post Environment Writer
October 24, 2003
Chronic wasting disease could exact a $100 billion toll every year across the country, with rural regions that depend on hunting, wildlife watching and game farms hit the hardest, a new study by a Colorado State University economist concludes.
The study is one of the first to attempt to calculate the economic impact of CWD, a fatal brain disease of deer and elk that appears to be spreading across the central United States and Canada.
Andrew Seidl, an associate professor of agricultural and resource economics at CSU, acknowledged the study assumed a worst-case scenario. But he said it showed significant risks to regions that depend on wildlife-related activities for income.
"The bottom line is, while we really don't know what the total economic impact is going to be, we can see that wildlife is a large and important industry," Seidl said.
The study tallied a range of possible costs, from providing federal aid to affected game farmers and state wildlife agencies, to the ripple effect that a decrease in hunting could have on gas stations, hospitals and sporting goods stores.
In 2001, an outbreak of CWD virtually shut down Colorado's elk farming industry. Last year, the disease was found on the hunting-dependent Western Slope.
Colorado's most lucrative hunting is for elk. The study predicted the biggest impact in states that depend on deer hunting.
The Colorado Division of Wildlife estimates that hunting of wild deer and elk pumped $599 million into Colorado's economy last year. Elk and deer ranching added another $19 million in economic impact before it was virtually shut down by the 2001 outbreak.
In 2001, 10 million hunters reported spending $10 billion nationwide, the majority spent by deer hunters, according to a study by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Wildlife watching drew 66 million people and generated $38.4 billion, the study found.
Those numbers could drop if fears of contracting CWD, a neurologic malady related to mad cow disease, were to spread, Seidl said.
Researchers say there is no evidence that CWD has infected a human. But Wisconsin officials reported a 10 percent drop in hunting in 2002 after the discovery that deer in the south-central part of the state carried the deadly disease, Seidl said. That translated to a $100 million dip in a $1.7 billion industry.
Some CWD experts said the $100 billion figure probably overstates the potential impact, but they acknowledged that the cost of managing the disease is significant.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has spent $20 million in aid to deer and elk ranchers affected by the disease, and federal wildlife disease experts estimate state agencies will need $100 million over the next three to four years to fund research, testing and surveillance programs.
Every state but Hawaii now has a CWD surveillance program. The Colorado Division of Wildlife alone has spent $7 million on research, testing and management, agency spokesman Todd Malmsbury said.
Seidl's $100 billion estimate "does seem a bit high," said Bruce Morrison, assistant administrator for the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission.
"But I think the value of the study is it will help agencies and decision-makers determine whether expenditures are cost-effective or not," said Morrison, who chairs the National CWD Plan Implementation Team, organized by state wildlife officers. "If spending $100 million on preventing (CWD's) spread can save you $100 billion, that starts to look like a bargain."
Division of Wildlife officials said CWD hasn't damaged hunting license sales.
"We sold approximately 230,000 elk licenses in 2002 even with the large amount of media attention on the discovery of CWD on the West Slope," Malmsbury said.
License sales declined about 8 percent in the handful of western Nebraska counties where CWD is found, but the statewide impact was negligible, Morrison said.
The study did not attempt a cost-benefit analysis. But any benefits would likely be insignificant, Seidl said.
Some costs identified by the study could prove to be temporary. The discovery of CWD in dozens of elk and deer farms has eliminated the market for meat, velvet and breeding animals. The estimated value of deer and elk raised behind fences was estimated at $276 million in 1997, the most recent year for which figures were available.
However, that could change quickly with the expected development of a live test or vaccine, said Ron Walker, president of the Colorado Elk Breeders Association.
By Theo Stein, Denver Post Environment Writer
October 24, 2003
Chronic wasting disease could exact a $100 billion toll every year across the country, with rural regions that depend on hunting, wildlife watching and game farms hit the hardest, a new study by a Colorado State University economist concludes.
The study is one of the first to attempt to calculate the economic impact of CWD, a fatal brain disease of deer and elk that appears to be spreading across the central United States and Canada.
Andrew Seidl, an associate professor of agricultural and resource economics at CSU, acknowledged the study assumed a worst-case scenario. But he said it showed significant risks to regions that depend on wildlife-related activities for income.
"The bottom line is, while we really don't know what the total economic impact is going to be, we can see that wildlife is a large and important industry," Seidl said.
The study tallied a range of possible costs, from providing federal aid to affected game farmers and state wildlife agencies, to the ripple effect that a decrease in hunting could have on gas stations, hospitals and sporting goods stores.
In 2001, an outbreak of CWD virtually shut down Colorado's elk farming industry. Last year, the disease was found on the hunting-dependent Western Slope.
Colorado's most lucrative hunting is for elk. The study predicted the biggest impact in states that depend on deer hunting.
The Colorado Division of Wildlife estimates that hunting of wild deer and elk pumped $599 million into Colorado's economy last year. Elk and deer ranching added another $19 million in economic impact before it was virtually shut down by the 2001 outbreak.
In 2001, 10 million hunters reported spending $10 billion nationwide, the majority spent by deer hunters, according to a study by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Wildlife watching drew 66 million people and generated $38.4 billion, the study found.
Those numbers could drop if fears of contracting CWD, a neurologic malady related to mad cow disease, were to spread, Seidl said.
Researchers say there is no evidence that CWD has infected a human. But Wisconsin officials reported a 10 percent drop in hunting in 2002 after the discovery that deer in the south-central part of the state carried the deadly disease, Seidl said. That translated to a $100 million dip in a $1.7 billion industry.
Some CWD experts said the $100 billion figure probably overstates the potential impact, but they acknowledged that the cost of managing the disease is significant.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has spent $20 million in aid to deer and elk ranchers affected by the disease, and federal wildlife disease experts estimate state agencies will need $100 million over the next three to four years to fund research, testing and surveillance programs.
Every state but Hawaii now has a CWD surveillance program. The Colorado Division of Wildlife alone has spent $7 million on research, testing and management, agency spokesman Todd Malmsbury said.
Seidl's $100 billion estimate "does seem a bit high," said Bruce Morrison, assistant administrator for the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission.
"But I think the value of the study is it will help agencies and decision-makers determine whether expenditures are cost-effective or not," said Morrison, who chairs the National CWD Plan Implementation Team, organized by state wildlife officers. "If spending $100 million on preventing (CWD's) spread can save you $100 billion, that starts to look like a bargain."
Division of Wildlife officials said CWD hasn't damaged hunting license sales.
"We sold approximately 230,000 elk licenses in 2002 even with the large amount of media attention on the discovery of CWD on the West Slope," Malmsbury said.
License sales declined about 8 percent in the handful of western Nebraska counties where CWD is found, but the statewide impact was negligible, Morrison said.
The study did not attempt a cost-benefit analysis. But any benefits would likely be insignificant, Seidl said.
Some costs identified by the study could prove to be temporary. The discovery of CWD in dozens of elk and deer farms has eliminated the market for meat, velvet and breeding animals. The estimated value of deer and elk raised behind fences was estimated at $276 million in 1997, the most recent year for which figures were available.
However, that could change quickly with the expected development of a live test or vaccine, said Ron Walker, president of the Colorado Elk Breeders Association.